Smarter Work for a Better Life

RESEARCH FOCUS

The objective of the “Smarter Work for a Better Life” research centre is to conduct thematic, coordinated, future-oriented macroeconomic and labour market research in order to ensure that the domestic economy’s key actors (companies, employees and the government) have access to the most up-to-date information to enable them to respond effectively to their labour market challenges. In collaboration with the corporate sector, we assess the current level of education and preparedness of the domestic workforce. Our research provides domestic companies information they need to understand the application of new types of work and management methods that are essential for development. In collaboration with the government, we analyse the potential for optimal regulatory conditions that encourage activities representing high added value and promote the rapid accumulation of human capital.

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INSTITUTE OF DATA ANALYTICS AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Outlook in macroeconomic and public finances 2025-2027

The purpose of the research is to prepare medium-term macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts and impact assessments on behalf of the Budget Council. We apply econometric modelling and forecasting methods including risk analysis for decision support before the adoption of the budget plan.

The analysis aims to provide a consistent forecast for the Hungarian national economy for 2025-2027. It will look at processes, growth and balance indicators, and highlight risks. The Budget Council has been given a macroeconomic analysis and forecast to help it examine the central budget, assess the macroeconomic baseline and explore risk factors. The quantified results and forecasts were formulated in a consistent macroeconomic model framework. When forecasting external processes, the information system used integrates the latest international research results and concrete growth forecasts, and domestic macroeconomic processes are quantified based on the ESA 2010 system of national accounts. Depending on the consistent macroeconomic trajectory that also takes into account world economic processes and trends and the planned fiscal regulatory system, the income and expenditure side of the budget can be reliably predicted, as well as the expected evolution of the balance indicators. In addition to the determination of cash-flow-based balances (primary, total), it is also necessary to examine the fulfillment of accrual-based deficit targets. In addition, the expected development of cyclically adjusted and structural balances depending on the economic situation of the economy is also analysed. The associated debt trajectory is determined numerically, similarly to the fulfillment of domestic and EU regulations regarding the amount and dynamics of the debt.