Early career wins and tournament prestige characterize tennis players’ trajectories

Understanding the complex mechanisms behind the origin of success is a challenging task that has captured the attention of researchers in recent years. Several studies have investigated the origin of success in various systems, from paper citations in science to music and art. Yet, we lack a systematic analysis of the key factors behind the successful unfolding of sports careers. Although some studies have examined the careers of top players in individual sports, little is known about the determinants of players’ future success at the beginning of their professional development. 

We study tennis and aim to understand the role of early access to prestigious tournaments in shaping the future of top players. 

We analyze the career progressions of professional male players over the past two decades, collecting official data from the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP). 

We hypothesize that the rise of top players in tennis is associated with their performance in high-level competitions early on in their careers. 

To test this, we introduce a novel approach to quantify the level of ATP tournaments, which not only includes their historical prestige but also considers the participation of players. 

This method is based on network science principles and does not require any previous knowledge about the tournaments. 

We focus on the interplay between participation in central tournaments and players’ performance, so we consider the first ten competitions that players participated in and look at the level of tourneys they attended when they entered the ATP circuit. We find that the level of the tournament in which players secure their first win is associated with becoming a top player. 

This work sheds light on the critical role of the initial stages in the progression of players’ careers, offering valuable insights into the dynamics of tennis careers and paving the way to further studies on success in sports.