Nobel Laureate James Heckman Honoured at Corvinus: The Fertility Crisis Can Be Overcome

Corvinus University Rector Bruno van Pottelsberghe awarded Heckman the title of “Doctor et Professor Honoris Causa on 18 December at Gellért Campus. This recognition highlighted his exceptional research on social mobility, skill development, social inequalities, and early childhood development, along with his significant contributions to understanding related economic and social challenges. 

Dr. Zoltán Oszkár Szántó, head of the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies (CIAS), also welcomed the distinguished professor from the University of Chicago, a co-recipient of the 2000 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for developing methods to analyse individual and household behaviour. His work on selective samples, particularly the Heckman correction, has become a cornerstone in addressing statistical selection bias. 

The laudation also celebrated the collaboration between Heckman and Corvinus University, initiated in 2023. Heckman led several online research seminars for the “Family, Fertility and Human Development” project, involving researchers from across the globe. The research focuses on analysing the causes and implications of declining fertility rates worldwide and exploring effective social policies to counter these trends. 

Dr. Szántó emphasised that this international research not only enhances Corvinus University’s visibility but also offers remarkable opportunities for Hungarian science. 

Lecture on Global Fertility Crisis 

Following the ceremony, Heckman delivered a scientific lecture on global fertility trends, discussing demographic transitions and their socio-economic impacts. He stressed that addressing the fertility crisis requires a comprehensive approach that considers the interplay of social, economic, and cultural factors. 

He emphasized that declining fertility rates are reshaping the demographic structures of societies worldwide. Since the Industrial Revolution, birth and death rates have undergone dramatic changes, driven by improved living conditions, advancements in healthcare, and greater access to education. The examples of Japan and South Korea illustrate how aging societies emerge, creating economic challenges for the working-age population. Conversely, in Africa, high fertility rates result in large numbers of unemployed youth, potentially leading to social tensions. Classic economic theories no longer adequately explain the relationship between population and economy, making it imperative for modern economics to design sustainable systems for aging populations. 

He highlighted the dramatic increase in childlessness in developed countries over recent decades. For instance, in Japan, Spain, and Portugal, a quarter of women over 40 remain childless. Beyond the postponement of parenthood, this trend reflects deeper social and economic changes, such as expanded educational and career opportunities and the democratization of decision-making within families. Education plays a pivotal role: it raises the cost of childbearing as parents strive to provide quality education and better living conditions for their children, while also enhancing women’s opportunities and thus the value of alternatives in the labor market. 

Social norms have also evolved: childbearing is increasingly seen as a personal choice rather than an economic or societal expectation. For example, in Brazil, a television series portraying modern female roles contributed to declining fertility rates, underscoring the media’s influence. Economic uncertainty, high housing costs—particularly in Italy and South Korea—and concerns over climate change further deter family formation. 

Reversing the Trend 

Professor Heckman stated that solutions exist for addressing the fertility crisis: increased investment in education, support for parents, and improving the situation of women and youth are essential. 

Since the 1990s, fertility rates among educated women in developed regions have risen. The Scandinavian welfare states provide evidence that public spending on childcare, education, and parental support, along with more equitable division of domestic responsibilities, positively impact fertility rates. Improving the economic situation of young people—for example, through targeted housing policies—is also crucial, as housing costs and the ability to live independently significantly influence the willingness to start families. Measures to strengthen women’s position in the labor market, such as equal pay and training opportunities, are equally important. 

Following the award ceremony, Heckman participated in a two-day scientific workshop at Corvinus that explored data on fertility decline and the effectiveness of supportive policies.