Group draw with unknown qualified teams: A lesson from the 2022 FIFA World Cup draw – Publication by László Csató
2022-09-16 10:56:46
The article written by László Csató was published in the International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching.
The draw for the 2022 FIFA World Cup has been organised before the identity of three winners of the play-offs is revealed. Seeding has been based on the FIFA World Ranking released on 31 March 2022 but these three teams have been drawn from the weakest Pot 4. We show that the official seeding policy does not balance the difficulty levels of the groups to the extent possible: a better alternative would have been to assign the placeholders according to the highest-ranked potential winner, similar to the rule used in the UEFA Champions League qualification. Our simulations reinforce that this is the best strategy in general to create balanced groups in the FIFA World Cup.
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