The key to long-term sportsman success

What are the factors that determine the success of top tennis players? The complex mechanisms of success have been extensively researched in recent years, but analysing the factors behind successful sporting careers, especially those that determine the start of professional development is a somewhat underexplored area. In a study published in EPJ Data Science, Corvinus researcher Chiara Zappalà et al. used network science methods to analyse the career trajectories of professional male tennis players over the past two decades, relying on official data from the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP). Their work highlights the critical role of the initial stages in the progression of players’ careers.  

“Our results show that the level at which a professional tennis player enters the ATP circuit and wins his first match in a major tournament typically determines his career progression.  The higher the prestige of the first tournament in which a professional male tennis player secures a win, the more successful his sporting career is likely to be”, she says, summarising the main findings of the research. So the researchers proved their hypothesis: early access to prestigious tennis tournaments and victory in the initial stage of one’s sporting career is associated with becoming a top player.  

The analysed 3,455 professional tennis players were grouped into three categories: best, average, and worst, based on their performance. “Analysing the career paths in the different categories, it was revealed that the top players not only had the best performances but also the longest career spans”, explains Chiara Zappalà. She adds that, compared to the other groups, top players tend to achieve their first match win later, as they usually fail to secure an early victory. However, after their first match win, their careers typically take off and they start winning more and more in prestigious tournaments. Also, the best-performing players tend to participate in a fair number of lesser-known competitions before entering the more prestigious ATP events.  

To test this, a novel approach to quantify the level of ATP tournaments has been introduced, taking into account the historical prestige of tournaments and player participation. The researchers focused on the interplay between participation in central tournaments and player performance and considered the first ten tournaments in which the players participated. They also looked at the level of tournaments the players attended when entering the ATP circuit.   

Illustration from the study